VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ, the 1X2 probabilities show VVV Venlo at 48%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). VVV Venlo has an expected goals figure of 2.62, while Jong AZ sits at 1.41. This suggests a strong attacking performance from VVV Venlo.
However, Jong AZ's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, which could challenge VVV Venlo's chances. The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 71%. If Jong AZ can capitalize on their recent momentum, the match could deviate from the expected outcomes.
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ: model vs market
| Source | VVV Venlo | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Market | 43% | 23% | 33% |
| Published | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Edge | +20% | -5% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices VVV Venlo below the model: +19.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.04
- Attack rating (VVV Venlo / Jong AZ)
- 1.38 / 1.14
- Defence rating (VVV Venlo / Jong AZ)
- 0.85 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VVV Venlo goals. Columns: Jong AZ goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Jong AZ | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VVV Venlo or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong AZ) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win by 2+ | 43% | 2.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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VVV Venlo and Jong AZ recent form
VVV Venlo
4W 0D 2L
Jong AZ
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VVV Venlo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong AZ away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: VVV Venlo at home only, Jong AZ away only.
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: VVV Venlo 1 · draws 0 · Jong AZ 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | VVV Venlo | 1-3 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-07 | Jong AZ | 0-2 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
- Helmond Sport v NAC Breda — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- VVV Venlo, previous: Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo prediction
- Jong AZ, previous: Jong AZ – Den Bosch, 2026-10-09