Jong AZ vs Den Bosch preview
Jong AZ faces Den Bosch in the Eerste Divisie with a 54% probability of a home win according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, reflecting Jong AZ's expected goals of 2.73 compared to Den Bosch's 1.36. The high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 70% suggests a match with potential for multiple goals.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Den Bosch has struggled recently, with five losses in their last six matches. If they find form or if Jong AZ underperforms, the expected outcomes could change. The head-to-head record shows a competitive history, with Jong AZ winning twice and Den Bosch three times in the last ten encounters.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch: model vs market
| Source | Jong AZ | Draw | Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 50% | 21% | 29% |
| Published | 54% | 21% | 26% |
| Edge | +16% | -3% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Jong AZ below the model: +16.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jong AZ, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.00 |
| Den Bosch | 3.22 | 3.20 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jong AZ and Den Bosch expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.09
- Attack rating (Jong AZ / Den Bosch)
- 1.29 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Jong AZ / Den Bosch)
- 1.12 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong AZ goals. Columns: Den Bosch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong AZ | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.87 | |
| Den Bosch | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong AZ or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Den Bosch) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong AZ win by 2+ | 46% | 2.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jong AZ and Den Bosch recent form
Jong AZ
3W 1D 2L
Den Bosch
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong AZ at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
Den Bosch away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong AZ at home only, Den Bosch away only.
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Jong AZ 2 · draws 5 · Den Bosch 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Jong AZ | 2-2 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-26 | Den Bosch | 2-3 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-04-28 | Jong AZ | 0-0 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-08-16 | Den Bosch | 6-0 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-02-16 | Den Bosch | 0-0 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-12-11 | Jong AZ | 0-0 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-02-17 | Jong AZ | 3-1 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-10-14 | Den Bosch | 3-0 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-12-20 | Jong AZ | 3-3 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-09-17 | Den Bosch | 2-1 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
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