Dordrecht vs Emmen preview
Dordrecht faces Emmen in the Eerste Divisie, with Emmen having a 44% chance to win compared to Dordrecht's 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which reflects Emmen's expected goals of 2.19 against Dordrecht's 1.72.
Both teams to score has a probability of 74%, and there's a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75%. However, Dordrecht's recent form shows five games without a win, which could impact their performance. Emmen has also struggled with inconsistency, winning only two of their last six matches.
Dordrecht vs Emmen: model vs market
| Source | Dordrecht | Draw | Emmen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| Market | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Published | 33% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | -4% | -2% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.72.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Emmen below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Dordrecht vs Emmen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Emmen, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 2.70 | 2.75 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.78 | -0.04 |
| Emmen | 2.25 | 2.20 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dordrecht and Emmen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (Dordrecht / Emmen)
- 0.85 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Dordrecht / Emmen)
- 1.41 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dordrecht vs Emmen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dordrecht goals. Columns: Emmen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dordrecht vs Emmen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dordrecht vs Emmen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dordrecht | 33% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Emmen | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 |
| No | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dordrecht or draw) | 56% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Emmen) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Dordrecht and Emmen recent form
Dordrecht
1W 1D 4L
Emmen
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dordrecht at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Emmen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dordrecht at home only, Emmen away only.
Dordrecht vs Emmen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dordrecht 5 · draws 1 · Emmen 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Dordrecht | 1-0 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-19 | Emmen | 2-0 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-02-28 | Dordrecht | 3-0 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-08-09 | Emmen | 1-2 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-05-18 | Dordrecht | 0-1 | Emmen | Eredivisie |
| 2024-05-14 | Emmen | 2-2 | Dordrecht | Eredivisie |
| 2023-12-23 | Dordrecht | 2-1 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-09-01 | Emmen | 2-4 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-12-23 | Emmen | 4-0 | Dordrecht | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-04-15 | Dordrecht | 0-1 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
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