De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht preview
De Graafschap faces Jong Utrecht with a 53% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which suggests a competitive match. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that the probabilities are not strongly aligned with the market odds, which could lead to unexpected outcomes.
Both teams to score stands at 74%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 75%. The expected goals for De Graafschap is 1.91, and for Jong Utrecht, it is 1.98. This close expected goals figure suggests a balanced contest, but recent form shows De Graafschap has struggled, with two losses in their last three matches.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht: model vs market
| Source | De Graafschap | Draw | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 21% |
| Published | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Edge | -21% | +2% | +19% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht odds movement
Median bookmaker price on De Graafschap, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 1.62 | 1.58 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.02 |
| Jong Utrecht | 4.29 | 4.47 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.89
- Attack rating (De Graafschap / Jong Utrecht)
- 0.92 / 1.09
- Defence rating (De Graafschap / Jong Utrecht)
- 1.24 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: De Graafschap goals. Columns: Jong Utrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Jong Utrecht | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (De Graafschap or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong Utrecht) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win by 2+ | 20% | 4.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht recent form
De Graafschap
2W 1D 3L
Jong Utrecht
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
De Graafschap at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong Utrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: De Graafschap at home only, Jong Utrecht away only.
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: De Graafschap 4 · draws 5 · Jong Utrecht 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | De Graafschap | 1-0 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-12-08 | Jong Utrecht | 2-3 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-01-20 | Jong Utrecht | 1-1 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-08-23 | De Graafschap | 2-2 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-05-03 | De Graafschap | 2-2 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-11-24 | Jong Utrecht | 2-0 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-01-30 | Jong Utrecht | 1-1 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-10-14 | De Graafschap | 2-0 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-12-20 | Jong Utrecht | 0-2 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-09-24 | De Graafschap | 2-2 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
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