Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven, the model gives Almere City FC a strong 69% chance to win. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.47 for Almere City FC compared to just 0.95 for FC Eindhoven.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While there is a 66% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, FC Eindhoven could still surprise, especially given their recent form that includes two wins in their last five matches. Almere's inconsistency, with two losses in their last five, could also affect the outcome.
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven: model vs market
| Source | Almere City FC | Draw | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Published | 69% | 18% | 14% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Almere City FC, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC | 1.42 | 1.36 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.95 | 5.25 | +0.30 |
| FC Eindhoven | 5.67 | 6.50 | +0.83 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Almere City FC / FC Eindhoven)
- 1.13 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Almere City FC / FC Eindhoven)
- 0.68 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almere City FC goals. Columns: FC Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 69% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.61 | |
| FC Eindhoven | 14% | 7.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almere City FC or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Eindhoven) | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win by 2+ | 49% | 2.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven recent form
Almere City FC
4W 0D 2L
FC Eindhoven
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almere City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Eindhoven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Almere City FC at home only, FC Eindhoven away only.
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Almere City FC 5 · draws 2 · FC Eindhoven 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Eindhoven | 3-2 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-15 | Almere City FC | 5-0 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-05-26 | Almere City FC | 3-1 | FC Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 2023-05-22 | FC Eindhoven | 1-0 | Almere City FC | Eredivisie |
| 2023-02-10 | FC Eindhoven | 0-1 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-09-12 | Almere City FC | 1-1 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-04-08 | FC Eindhoven | 3-1 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-12-03 | Almere City FC | 2-0 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-03-12 | FC Eindhoven | 1-3 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-01-08 | Almere City FC | 0-0 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
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