Heracles vs Waalwijk preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Heracles and Waalwijk, the model gives Heracles a 57% chance to win, while both teams have a 21% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The statistics suggest a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, each at 70%.
Heracles has an expected goals figure of 2.02 compared to Waalwijk's 1.57, indicating a higher attacking threat. However, the recent form shows Heracles has drawn and lost in their last matches, while Waalwijk has had a mix of results, including a recent draw. This uncertainty in form could affect the outcome, making the confidence grade a C.
Heracles vs Waalwijk: model vs market
| Source | Heracles | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 23% | 29% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 57% | 21% | 21% |
| Edge | -13% | +2% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Heracles vs Waalwijk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heracles, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 1.54 | 1.53 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.45 | -0.04 |
| Waalwijk | 4.93 | 4.97 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heracles and Waalwijk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Heracles / Waalwijk)
- 1.29 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Heracles / Waalwijk)
- 0.95 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heracles vs Waalwijk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heracles goals. Columns: Waalwijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heracles vs Waalwijk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heracles vs Waalwijk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Waalwijk | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heracles or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Waalwijk) | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Heracles and Waalwijk recent form
Heracles
4W 1D 1L
Waalwijk
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heracles at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waalwijk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heracles at home only, Waalwijk away only.
Heracles vs Waalwijk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Heracles 4 · draws 2 · Waalwijk 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Heracles | 3-1 | Waalwijk | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-04-06 | Waalwijk | 0-0 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
| 2024-11-23 | Heracles | 2-2 | Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
| 2024-05-05 | Heracles | 0-5 | Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
| 2024-01-12 | Waalwijk | 1-2 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
| 2022-05-11 | Waalwijk | 2-0 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
| 2021-09-26 | Heracles | 1-0 | Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
| 2021-07-30 | Heracles | 4-1 | Waalwijk | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-02-21 | Waalwijk | 3-0 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
| 2020-10-17 | Heracles | 0-1 | Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
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