FC OSS vs Helmond Sport preview
FC OSS hosts Helmond Sport with a 45% chance of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability. Both teams to score stands at 61%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 60%. FC OSS has an expected goals figure of 1.89 compared to Helmond Sport's 1.22, suggesting a slight edge in attacking potential.
However, recent form shows FC OSS with a mixed record of W-L-W-L-L-W, while Helmond Sport has D-L-L-W-W-L. This inconsistency could impact the outcome. The head-to-head record shows FC OSS with 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 wins for Helmond Sport in their last 10 meetings, indicating a competitive matchup. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport: model vs market
| Source | FC OSS | Draw | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | +9% | -2% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC OSS below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC OSS, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC OSS | 2.20 | 2.17 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.50 | +0.08 |
| Helmond Sport | 3.03 | 3.01 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC OSS and Helmond Sport expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (FC OSS / Helmond Sport)
- 1.06 / 0.93
- Defence rating (FC OSS / Helmond Sport)
- 0.89 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC OSS goals. Columns: Helmond Sport goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC OSS | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Helmond Sport | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC OSS or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Helmond Sport) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC OSS win by 2+ | 30% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC OSS and Helmond Sport recent form
FC OSS
3W 0D 3L
Helmond Sport
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC OSS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Helmond Sport away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC OSS at home only, Helmond Sport away only.
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC OSS 3 · draws 5 · Helmond Sport 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Helmond Sport | 1-1 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-31 | FC OSS | 0-3 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-02-02 | FC OSS | 1-1 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-09-16 | Helmond Sport | 1-0 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-03-15 | FC OSS | 1-0 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-09-15 | Helmond Sport | 1-1 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-03-31 | FC OSS | 2-2 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-09-30 | Helmond Sport | 1-2 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-01-21 | Helmond Sport | 1-3 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-11-12 | FC OSS | 0-0 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht 2026-10-09
- NAC Breda v MVV — match page 2026-10-09
- Heracles vs Waalwijk — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Dordrecht vs Emmen 2026-10-09
- Roda v Jong PSV U21 — match page 2026-10-09
- FC Volendam vs Vitesse — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Jong AZ vs Den Bosch 2026-10-09
- Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven — match page 2026-10-09