NAC Breda vs MVV preview
NAC Breda faces MVV with a strong probability of 68% to win according to the model 1X2. The expected goals suggest a high-scoring match, with NAC Breda projected at 2.65 and MVV at 1.29. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 75%, and both teams to score is at 68%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Recent form shows NAC Breda with mixed results, having drawn and lost in their last few matches. MVV also has a mix of results, including a recent win. This could affect the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the expected scoreline of 2-1.
NAC Breda vs MVV: model vs market
| Source | NAC Breda | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Published | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.29.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
NAC Breda vs MVV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NAC Breda, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 1.33 | 1.33 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.22 | 5.05 | -0.17 |
| MVV | 7.10 | 7.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NAC Breda and MVV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (NAC Breda / MVV)
- 1.16 / 0.76
- Defence rating (NAC Breda / MVV)
- 1.16 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NAC Breda vs MVV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NAC Breda goals. Columns: MVV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NAC Breda vs MVV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NAC Breda vs MVV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAC Breda | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.49 | |
| MVV | 14% | 7.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NAC Breda or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or MVV) | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win by 2+ | 46% | 2.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NAC Breda and MVV recent form
NAC Breda
2W 2D 2L
MVV
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NAC Breda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MVV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NAC Breda at home only, MVV away only.
NAC Breda vs MVV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: NAC Breda 8 · draws 0 · MVV 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | NAC Breda | 1-2 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-11-19 | MVV | 1-4 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-05-27 | MVV | 1-4 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| 2023-05-23 | NAC Breda | 1-0 | MVV | Eredivisie |
| 2023-03-10 | NAC Breda | 4-1 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-08-15 | MVV | 3-1 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-03-04 | MVV | 1-2 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-10-22 | NAC Breda | 3-0 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-05-07 | NAC Breda | 2-0 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2020-11-06 | MVV | 1-4 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
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