Roda vs Jong PSV U21 preview
Roda takes on Jong PSV U21 with a 54% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Roda's expected goals of 1.33 compared to Jong PSV U21's 0.83. However, the match could see different outcomes if Jong PSV U21 improves their form, as they have recently drawn three times.
The market shows a 37% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score. Roda's recent form includes two wins, while Jong PSV U21 has struggled with only one win in their last five matches. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Roda vs Jong PSV U21: model vs market
| Source | Roda | Draw | Jong PSV U21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | -8% | +8% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roda, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roda | 1.66 | 1.67 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.14 | -0.01 |
| Jong PSV U21 | 4.25 | 4.21 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roda and Jong PSV U21 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Roda / Jong PSV U21)
- 0.71 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Roda / Jong PSV U21)
- 0.66 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roda goals. Columns: Jong PSV U21 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roda vs Jong PSV U21
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roda | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Jong PSV U21 | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roda or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong PSV U21) | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roda win by 2+ | 23% | 4.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Roda and Jong PSV U21 recent form
Roda
2W 3D 1L
Jong PSV U21
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Roda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Jong PSV U21 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Roda at home only, Jong PSV U21 away only.
Roda vs Jong PSV U21 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Roda 7 · draws 1 · Jong PSV U21 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Roda | 0-2 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-15 | Jong PSV U21 | 0-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-07-18 | Jong PSV U21 | 1-1 | Roda | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-03-07 | Roda | 2-1 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-12-09 | Jong PSV U21 | 2-3 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-08-02 | Jong PSV U21 | 0-1 | Roda | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-04-01 | Jong PSV U21 | 2-3 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-12-08 | Roda | 2-1 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-08-04 | Jong PSV U21 | 1-3 | Roda | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-03 | Jong PSV U21 | 5-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
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