Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo preview
Jong Ajax faces VVV Venlo with a 29% chance of winning compared to Venlo's 49%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, suggesting a competitive match. However, Jong Ajax's recent form shows only two wins in their last six games, which could impact their performance.
The statistics indicate a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 68%. VVV Venlo has an expected goals figure of 2.62, significantly higher than Jong Ajax's 1.29. This disparity in expected goals could lead to a higher-scoring match, but Jong Ajax's ability to secure points at home remains a factor to consider.
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo: model vs market
| Source | Jong Ajax | Draw | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| Market | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Published | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| Edge | -17% | -5% | +22% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices VVV Venlo below the model: +22.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VVV Venlo, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 2.79 | 2.77 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 4.00 | +0.06 |
| VVV Venlo | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Jong Ajax / VVV Venlo)
- 0.77 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Jong Ajax / VVV Venlo)
- 1.34 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong Ajax goals. Columns: VVV Venlo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Ajax | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 | |
| VVV Venlo | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong Ajax or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or VVV Venlo) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win by 2+ | 45% | 2.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo recent form
Jong Ajax
2W 2D 2L
VVV Venlo
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong Ajax at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VVV Venlo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong Ajax at home only, VVV Venlo away only.
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Jong Ajax 5 · draws 1 · VVV Venlo 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | VVV Venlo | 0-1 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-26 | Jong Ajax | 2-4 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-03-07 | VVV Venlo | 1-0 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-11-01 | Jong Ajax | 0-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-05-03 | VVV Venlo | 2-0 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-10-06 | Jong Ajax | 3-0 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-04-28 | VVV Venlo | 0-1 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-10-24 | Jong Ajax | 1-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-04-25 | Jong Ajax | 6-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-11-05 | VVV Venlo | 1-3 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
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