Barendrecht vs Waalwijk preview
In the KNVB Beker match between Barendrecht and Waalwijk on 2026-10-27, the 1X2 probabilities show Barendrecht at 37%, Waalwijk at 35%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. Both teams to score is at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%.
Barendrecht's expected goals are 1.36, slightly higher than Waalwijk's 1.33. However, Waalwijk's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Barendrecht's chances. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Barendrecht vs Waalwijk: model vs market
| Source | Barendrecht | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Barendrecht and Waalwijk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Barendrecht / Waalwijk)
- 0.86 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Barendrecht / Waalwijk)
- 0.74 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barendrecht vs Waalwijk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barendrecht goals. Columns: Waalwijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barendrecht vs Waalwijk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barendrecht vs Waalwijk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barendrecht | 37% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Waalwijk | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barendrecht or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Waalwijk) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barendrecht win by 2+ | 17% | 5.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Barendrecht and Waalwijk recent form
Barendrecht
2W 1D 0L
Waalwijk
3W 1D 2L
Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Excelsior '31 v ADO Den Haag — match page 2026-10-27
- Roda vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- FC Eindhoven vs FC Volendam 2026-10-27
- Helmond Sport v Willem II — match page 2026-10-27
- Telstar vs Almere City FC 2026-10-27
- Koninklijke HFC vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-10-27
- Rijnsburgse Boys v Den Bosch — match page 2026-10-27
- Kloetinge vs Cambuur 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Waalwijk, previous: Waalwijk v FC Volendam analysis