Waalwijk vs FC Volendam preview
Waalwijk faces FC Volendam with a 48% chance of winning compared to Volendam's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Waalwijk's expected goals of 1.85 and Volendam's 1.52. The model suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 67%.
However, Waalwijk's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last three matches, while FC Volendam has struggled, losing four of their last six games. This could impact the expected outcome, as form can shift quickly in football. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam: model vs market
| Source | Waalwijk | Draw | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.52.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Waalwijk, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk | 1.90 | 1.92 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.91 | -0.05 |
| FC Volendam | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Waalwijk and FC Volendam expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Waalwijk / FC Volendam)
- 1.04 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Waalwijk / FC Volendam)
- 0.93 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Waalwijk goals. Columns: FC Volendam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| FC Volendam | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Waalwijk or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Volendam) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win by 2+ | 25% | 4.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Waalwijk and FC Volendam recent form
Waalwijk
3W 1D 2L
FC Volendam
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Waalwijk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Volendam away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Waalwijk at home only, FC Volendam away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-16
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
- Emmen vs Almere City FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- MVV v Heracles — match page 2026-10-18
- Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap 2026-10-19
- Jong Utrecht v Roda — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Waalwijk, previous: Heracles – Waalwijk, 2026-10-09
- Waalwijk, next: Barendrecht vs Waalwijk: odds and pick
- FC Volendam, previous: FC Volendam vs Vitesse prediction
- FC Volendam, next: FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam, 2026-10-27