MVV vs Heracles preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between MVV and Heracles, the 1X2 probabilities show MVV at 15%, a draw at 19%, and Heracles at 66%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 10% chance. Heracles has a strong expected goals figure of 2.32 compared to MVV's 1.06, indicating a likely advantage in scoring.
The model suggests a high probability for Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 60%. However, MVV's recent form of L-L-W-L-L-D could lead to an unexpected outcome if they manage to improve their performance.
MVV vs Heracles: model vs market
| Source | MVV | Draw | Heracles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Market | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| Published | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
MVV vs Heracles odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heracles, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 6.28 | 6.00 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 4.95 | 4.88 | -0.08 |
| Heracles | 1.38 | 1.40 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
MVV and Heracles expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (MVV / Heracles)
- 0.71 / 1.35
- Defence rating (MVV / Heracles)
- 1.17 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MVV vs Heracles score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MVV goals. Columns: Heracles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MVV vs Heracles goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MVV vs Heracles
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MVV | 15% | 6.55 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Heracles | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MVV or draw) | 34% | 2.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Heracles) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win by 2+ | 43% | 2.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MVV and Heracles recent form
MVV
1W 1D 4L
Heracles
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MVV at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heracles away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: MVV at home only, Heracles away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-16
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
- Emmen vs Almere City FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Waalwijk vs FC Volendam 2026-10-18
- Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap 2026-10-19
- Jong Utrecht v Roda — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- MVV, previous: NAC Breda vs MVV prediction
- MVV, next: MVV vs Excelsior: odds and pick
- Heracles, previous: Heracles – Waalwijk, 2026-10-09