Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht, the 1X2 probabilities show Jong PSV U21 at 48%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 61%.
Jong PSV U21's recent form includes 2 draws, 1 win, and 2 losses, while Dordrecht has struggled with 4 losses and only 1 win in their last 6 matches. The expected goals suggest Jong PSV U21 will score 2.18, while Dordrecht is expected to net just 1.15. A draw or a lower-scoring game could challenge the predictions.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht: model vs market
| Source | Jong PSV U21 | Draw | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Published | 48% | 23% | 28% |
| Edge | +16% | -2% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.15.
- The market prices Jong PSV U21 below the model: +15.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jong PSV U21, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong PSV U21 | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.85 | +0.05 |
| Dordrecht | 2.92 | 2.91 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Jong PSV U21 / Dordrecht)
- 0.85 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Jong PSV U21 / Dordrecht)
- 1.01 / 1.43
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong PSV U21 goals. Columns: Dordrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong PSV U21 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Dordrecht | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong PSV U21 or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Dordrecht) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong PSV U21 win by 2+ | 38% | 2.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht recent form
Jong PSV U21
1W 3D 2L
Dordrecht
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong PSV U21 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Dordrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong PSV U21 at home only, Dordrecht away only.
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jong PSV U21 1 · draws 1 · Dordrecht 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Jong PSV U21 | 1-1 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-23 | Dordrecht | 1-2 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-16
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
- Emmen vs Almere City FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Waalwijk vs FC Volendam 2026-10-18
- MVV v Heracles — match page 2026-10-18
- Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap 2026-10-19
- Jong Utrecht v Roda — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Jong PSV U21, previous: Roda vs Jong PSV U21: odds and pick
- Dordrecht, previous: Dordrecht v Emmen analysis
- Dordrecht, next: SC Genemuiden – Dordrecht, 2026-10-28