Jong Utrecht vs Roda preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture, Jong Utrecht faces Roda with 28% chances for a Jong Utrecht win and 46% for Roda. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which has a 9% probability. Both teams to score stands at 52%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 45%.
Jong Utrecht's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Roda has 2 wins and 4 draws. The head-to-head record indicates Jong Utrecht has not won against Roda in their last 2 encounters, with 1 draw and 1 loss. This context could affect the outcome, as Jong Utrecht seeks to improve their performance at home.
Jong Utrecht vs Roda: model vs market
| Source | Jong Utrecht | Draw | Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | +9% | +5% | -14% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jong Utrecht vs Roda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roda, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht | 3.54 | 3.57 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Roda | 1.88 | 1.89 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jong Utrecht and Roda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Jong Utrecht / Roda)
- 1.03 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Jong Utrecht / Roda)
- 1.18 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong Utrecht vs Roda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong Utrecht goals. Columns: Roda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong Utrecht vs Roda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong Utrecht vs Roda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Utrecht | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Roda | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong Utrecht or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Roda) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roda win by 2+ | 16% | 6.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Jong Utrecht and Roda recent form
Jong Utrecht
2W 1D 3L
Roda
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong Utrecht at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
Roda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong Utrecht at home only, Roda away only.
Jong Utrecht vs Roda head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jong Utrecht 0 · draws 1 · Roda 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | Jong Utrecht | 1-3 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-01 | Roda | 1-1 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-16
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
- Emmen vs Almere City FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Waalwijk vs FC Volendam 2026-10-18
- MVV v Heracles — match page 2026-10-18
- Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Jong Utrecht, previous: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht: odds and pick
- Roda, previous: Roda vs Jong PSV U21: odds and pick
- Roda, next: Roda vs De Graafschap prediction