Roda vs De Graafschap Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Roda vs De Graafschap preview

In the KNVB Beker fixture between Roda and De Graafschap, the 1X2 probabilities show Roda at 43%, while De Graafschap is at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Roda's expected goals stand at 1.28, compared to De Graafschap's 0.95, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, the match could see different outcomes. Both teams to score has a 45% probability, suggesting that De Graafschap may find the net. Additionally, the recent form shows Roda with mixed results and De Graafschap winning two of their last three matches, which could influence the final result. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting some uncertainty.

Roda vs De Graafschap: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Roda	Draw	De Graafschap
Model	43%	31%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	43%	31%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.95.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Roda and De Graafschap expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Roda

0.95De Graafschap

Total expected goals: 2.22
Attack rating (Roda / De Graafschap): 0.64 / 0.79
Defence rating (Roda / De Graafschap): 0.59 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roda vs De Graafschap score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.1% 8.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 1 12.5% 14.4% 6.2% 1.9% 0.6% 2 8.8% 8.4% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 3 3.8% 3.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Roda goals. Columns: De Graafschap goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roda vs De Graafschap goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roda vs De Graafschap

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Roda	43%	2.34
	Draw	31%	3.22
	De Graafschap	26%	3.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.60
	Under 2.5	62%	1.62
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.20
	No	55%	1.83
Double chance	1X (Roda or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or De Graafschap)	57%	1.75
Handicap -1	Roda win by 2+	20%	4.98
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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