Telstar vs Almere City FC Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Telstar vs Almere City FC preview

In the KNVB Beker fixture between Telstar and Almere City FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Almere City FC at 59%, while Telstar is at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance according to our model. Telstar's recent form includes 5 matches without a win (D-L-D-L-D-L), while Almere City FC has won 3 of their last 5 matches (W-W-L-W-W-L).

Both teams to score stands at 44%, and Over 2.5 goals is also at 44%. Telstar has expected goals of 0.74, compared to Almere City FC's 1.71. A surprising performance from Telstar or a lack of finishing from Almere City FC could change the expected outcome.

Telstar vs Almere City FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Telstar	Draw	Almere City FC
Model	15%	26%	59%
Market	—	—	—
Published	15%	26%	59%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.74.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Telstar and Almere City FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.74Telstar

1.71Almere City FC

Total expected goals: 2.45
Attack rating (Telstar / Almere City FC): 0.70 / 1.02
Defence rating (Telstar / Almere City FC): 0.84 / 0.54

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Telstar vs Almere City FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 13.6% 12.6% 7.2% 4.5% 1 5.3% 12.0% 9.3% 5.3% 3.4% 2 2.4% 4.1% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% 3 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Telstar goals. Columns: Almere City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Telstar vs Almere City FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Telstar vs Almere City FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Telstar	15%	6.75
	Draw	26%	3.89
	Almere City FC	59%	1.68
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.25
	Under 2.5	56%	1.80
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.27
	No	56%	1.79
Double chance	1X (Telstar or draw)	41%	2.47
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Almere City FC)	85%	1.17
Handicap -1	Almere City FC win by 2+	34%	2.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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