Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag preview

Excelsior '31 faces ADO Den Haag with a 49% chance to win, compared to 29% for ADO Den Haag and a 22% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.18 for Excelsior '31 and 1.68 for ADO Den Haag.

With 74% for Over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, the match could see multiple goals. However, ADO Den Haag's recent form shows 5 games without a win, which might affect their performance. Excelsior '31 has won 3 of their last 4 matches, but their confidence grade is only C, indicating some uncertainty.

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Excelsior '31	Draw	ADO Den Haag
Model	49%	22%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	49%	22%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.68.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Excelsior '31 and ADO Den Haag expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.18Excelsior '31

1.68ADO Den Haag

Total expected goals: 3.86
Attack rating (Excelsior '31 / ADO Den Haag): 1.16 / 0.87
Defence rating (Excelsior '31 / ADO Den Haag): 0.95 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1 3.8% 8.5% 6.5% 3.6% 2.2% 2 5.0% 8.4% 7.1% 3.9% 2.4% 3 3.7% 6.1% 5.1% 2.9% 1.7% 4+ 3.3% 5.5% 4.6% 2.6% 1.6%

Rows: Excelsior '31 goals. Columns: ADO Den Haag goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 54%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Excelsior '31	49%	2.05
	Draw	22%	4.53
	ADO Den Haag	29%	3.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.35
	Under 2.5	26%	3.84
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.68
Double chance	1X (Excelsior '31 or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or ADO Den Haag)	51%	1.95
Handicap -1	Excelsior '31 win by 2+	29%	3.39
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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