Emmen vs Almere City FC preview
In the match between Emmen and Almere City FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Emmen at 39% and Almere City FC at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance according to our model. Emmen has an expected goals figure of 1.27, while Almere City FC has 1.79.
Both teams to score stands at 61%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 59%. Emmen's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 losses, while Almere City FC has 4 wins and 2 losses. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Emmen has not won any of the last 2 head-to-head matches against Almere City FC, who have won both.
Emmen vs Almere City FC: model vs market
| Source | Emmen | Draw | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Edge | -17% | +1% | +16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Emmen vs Almere City FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Emmen, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmen | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.80 | +0.15 |
| Almere City FC | 2.89 | 2.87 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Emmen and Almere City FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Emmen / Almere City FC)
- 1.16 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Emmen / Almere City FC)
- 1.03 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Emmen vs Almere City FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Emmen goals. Columns: Almere City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Emmen vs Almere City FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Emmen vs Almere City FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Almere City FC | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Emmen or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Almere City FC) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win by 2+ | 11% | 8.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Emmen and Almere City FC recent form
Emmen
3W 1D 2L
Almere City FC
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Emmen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almere City FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Emmen at home only, Almere City FC away only.
Emmen vs Almere City FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Emmen 0 · draws 0 · Almere City FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Almere City FC | 4-2 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-17 | Emmen | 1-4 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-16
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
- Helmond Sport v NAC Breda — match page 2026-10-16
- Waalwijk vs FC Volendam 2026-10-18
- MVV v Heracles — match page 2026-10-18
- Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Emmen, previous: Dordrecht v Emmen analysis
- Almere City FC, previous: Almere City FC v FC Eindhoven analysis
- Almere City FC, next: Telstar vs Almere City FC prediction