Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap, the 1X2 probabilities show De Graafschap at 42%, compared to Jong Ajax at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.54 for Jong Ajax and 1.84 for De Graafschap.
Both teams to score stands at 67%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 66%. Jong Ajax's recent form shows L-D-L-L-W-D, indicating struggles, while De Graafschap has a slightly better record with W-D-W-L-W-L. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. If Jong Ajax can improve their form, it may challenge the expected scoreline.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap: model vs market
| Source | Jong Ajax | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Published | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices De Graafschap below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap odds movement
Median bookmaker price on De Graafschap, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 2.61 | 2.58 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.00 |
| De Graafschap | 2.21 | 2.23 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (Jong Ajax / De Graafschap)
- 0.72 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Jong Ajax / De Graafschap)
- 1.38 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong Ajax goals. Columns: De Graafschap goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Ajax | 35% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| De Graafschap | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong Ajax or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or De Graafschap) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win by 2+ | 24% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Jong Ajax and De Graafschap recent form
Jong Ajax
1W 2D 3L
De Graafschap
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong Ajax at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
De Graafschap away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong Ajax at home only, De Graafschap away only.
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jong Ajax 0 · draws 1 · De Graafschap 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | De Graafschap | 4-0 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-03 | Jong Ajax | 2-2 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-16
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
- Emmen vs Almere City FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Waalwijk vs FC Volendam 2026-10-18
- MVV v Heracles — match page 2026-10-18
- Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Jong Utrecht v Roda — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Jong Ajax, previous: Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo prediction
- De Graafschap, previous: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht: odds and pick
- De Graafschap, next: Roda vs De Graafschap prediction