NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard, the 1X2 probabilities show NEC Nijmegen at 55%, while Fortuna Sittard sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. However, this prediction could be challenged by NEC Nijmegen's recent form, which includes 3 losses in their last 6 matches.
The model indicates a 62% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score. Expected goals are 1.52 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.67 for Fortuna Sittard, suggesting a competitive match. Fortuna Sittard has won both of their last two encounters against NEC Nijmegen, adding another layer of complexity to the prediction.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: model vs market
| Source | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Edge | -26% | +5% | +22% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NEC Nijmegen, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.42 | 1.56 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 4.85 | 4.47 | -0.38 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 6.20 | 5.00 | -1.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (NEC Nijmegen / Fortuna Sittard)
- 0.78 / 0.93
- Defence rating (NEC Nijmegen / Fortuna Sittard)
- 1.20 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NEC Nijmegen goals. Columns: Fortuna Sittard goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NEC Nijmegen or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortuna Sittard) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win by 2+ | 17% | 5.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard recent form
NEC Nijmegen
0W 3D 3L
Fortuna Sittard
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NEC Nijmegen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Fortuna Sittard away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen at home only, Fortuna Sittard away only.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 0 · draws 0 · Fortuna Sittard 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | NEC Nijmegen | 2-3 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 2025-08-31 | Fortuna Sittard | 3-2 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven 2026-10-17
- Telstar vs Feyenoord — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II 2026-10-17
- PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles — match page 2026-10-18
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar 2026-10-18
- Groningen v Ajax — match page 2026-10-18
- Twente vs Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- NEC Nijmegen, previous: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: odds and pick
- NEC Nijmegen, next: Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen analysis
- Fortuna Sittard, previous: Fortuna Sittard – Twente, 2026-10-10
- Fortuna Sittard, next: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard: odds and pick