Heerenveen vs Excelsior preview
Heerenveen hosts Excelsior with a 49% chance to win compared to Excelsior's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.41 for Heerenveen and 1.59 for Excelsior. The model suggests a strong potential for Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%.
However, recent form shows Heerenveen with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Excelsior has 2 wins in their last 6. This discrepancy could impact the match outcome. Heerenveen has won both of their last two encounters against Excelsior, but the current form may challenge that trend.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: model vs market
| Source | Heerenveen | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Edge | -21% | +3% | +18% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heerenveen, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Excelsior | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heerenveen and Excelsior expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Heerenveen / Excelsior)
- 0.88 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Heerenveen / Excelsior)
- 0.88 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heerenveen goals. Columns: Excelsior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heerenveen vs Excelsior
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Excelsior | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heerenveen or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Excelsior) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win by 2+ | 16% | 6.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Heerenveen and Excelsior recent form
Heerenveen
1W 2D 3L
Excelsior
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heerenveen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Excelsior away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heerenveen at home only, Excelsior away only.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Heerenveen 2 · draws 0 · Excelsior 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Excelsior | 1-2 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-04 | Heerenveen | 2-1 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Before and after this match
- Heerenveen, previous: PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen, 2026-10-09
- Excelsior, previous: Excelsior – Groningen, 2026-10-11