Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar, the 1X2 probabilities show Ararat-Armenia at 42%, AZ Alkmaar at 31%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance, indicating a competitive match.

The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. Ararat-Armenia has expected goals of 1.59, while AZ Alkmaar has 1.34. The recent form shows Ararat-Armenia with two wins in their last six matches, while AZ Alkmaar has three wins in the same period. A shift in form or an unexpected defensive performance could change the dynamics of this match.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ararat-Armenia	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
Model	42%	27%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	27%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Ararat-Armenia

1.34AZ Alkmaar

Total expected goals: 2.93
Attack rating (Ararat-Armenia / AZ Alkmaar): 1.13 / 1.25
Defence rating (Ararat-Armenia / AZ Alkmaar): 0.93 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 6.0% 4.8% 2.1% 1.0% 1 7.4% 12.5% 7.6% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.8% 9.1% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2% 3 3.6% 4.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.0% 2.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Ararat-Armenia goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ararat-Armenia	42%	2.36
	Draw	27%	3.75
	AZ Alkmaar	31%	3.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.27
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.49
Double chance	1X (Ararat-Armenia or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Ararat-Armenia win by 2+	22%	4.54
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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