OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between OFI and Bayer Leverkusen, the 1X2 probabilities show OFI at 40%, Bayer Leverkusen at 35%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 66%.

OFI's expected goals stand at 1.69, slightly ahead of Bayer Leverkusen's 1.57. Recent form indicates OFI has won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Bayer Leverkusen has won 4 out of 6. A draw or Bayer Leverkusen winning could challenge the prediction if they perform better than expected.

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	OFI	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
Model	40%	25%	35%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	25%	35%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

OFI and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69OFI

1.57Bayer Leverkusen

Total expected goals: 3.26
Attack rating (OFI / Bayer Leverkusen): 1.11 / 1.67
Defence rating (OFI / Bayer Leverkusen): 0.82 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 5.0% 4.7% 2.5% 1.4% 1 5.5% 11.2% 8.0% 4.2% 2.3% 2 5.5% 8.6% 6.8% 3.5% 2.0% 3 3.1% 4.9% 3.8% 2.0% 1.1% 4+ 1.9% 3.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.7%

Rows: OFI goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 66%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	OFI	40%	2.50
	Draw	25%	3.97
	Bayer Leverkusen	35%	2.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.58
	Under 2.5	37%	2.73
Both teams to score	Yes	66%	1.52
	No	34%	2.91
Double chance	1X (OFI or draw)	65%	1.53
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen)	60%	1.67
Handicap -1	OFI win by 2+	21%	4.73
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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