Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg preview

In the DFB Pokal match on 2026-10-27, Bayer Leverkusen has a 13% chance to win, while 1. FC Nürnberg stands at 69%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Bayer Leverkusen's expected goals are 1.05, compared to 1. FC Nürnberg's 2.55, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.

The model suggests a 70% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability for both teams to score. However, if Bayer Leverkusen improves their recent form, which includes a loss in their last five matches, they could challenge the expected outcome. Conversely, 1. FC Nürnberg's consistent performance with three wins in their last five could solidify their position.

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	1. FC Nürnberg
Model	13%	18%	69%
Market	—	—	—
Published	13%	18%	69%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.05.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Bayer Leverkusen

2.551. FC Nürnberg

Total expected goals: 3.60
Attack rating (Bayer Leverkusen / 1. FC Nürnberg): 1.29 / 1.20
Defence rating (Bayer Leverkusen / 1. FC Nürnberg): 0.79 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 6.2% 8.9% 7.5% 8.8% 1 2.1% 8.1% 9.3% 7.9% 9.3% 2 1.5% 3.9% 4.9% 4.2% 4.9% 3 0.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%

Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Columns: 1. FC Nürnberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 48%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bayer Leverkusen	13%	7.78
	Draw	18%	5.50
	1. FC Nürnberg	69%	1.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70%	1.44
	Under 2.5	30%	3.30
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.65
	No	39%	2.54
Double chance	1X (Bayer Leverkusen or draw)	31%	3.22
	12 (either side)	82%	1.22
	X2 (draw or 1. FC Nürnberg)	87%	1.15
Handicap -1	1. FC Nürnberg win by 2+	48%	2.08
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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