SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt preview

In the DFB Pokal fixture between SV Elversberg and Darmstadt, the 1X2 probabilities show Darmstadt at 51%, while SV Elversberg stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score has a 56% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%.

Darmstadt's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while SV Elversberg has 3 wins as well but with more mixed results. The expected goals suggest SV Elversberg at 1.09 and Darmstadt at 1.73. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty, which could affect the outcome if either team underperforms.

Why this pick: SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SV Elversberg 5, Darmstadt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SV ElversbergDarmstadt

1.31 xG per 90 0.76

1.31 npxG per 90 0.76

13.2 PPDA 16.1

5.6 Deep completions per 90 5.0

0.78 xPTS per 90 0.63

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	SV Elversberg	Draw	Darmstadt
Model	23%	26%	51%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	26%	51%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.09.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

SV Elversberg and Darmstadt expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09SV Elversberg

1.73Darmstadt

Total expected goals: 2.82
Attack rating (SV Elversberg / Darmstadt): 1.04 / 0.77
Defence rating (SV Elversberg / Darmstadt): 0.84 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 9.2% 8.9% 5.2% 3.3% 1 5.4% 12.4% 9.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2 3.5% 6.1% 5.3% 3.1% 2.0% 3 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: SV Elversberg goals. Columns: Darmstadt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SV Elversberg vs Darmstadt

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	SV Elversberg	23%	4.41
	Draw	26%	3.85
	Darmstadt	51%	1.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.87
	Under 2.5	46%	2.15
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.80
	No	44%	2.26
Double chance	1X (SV Elversberg or draw)	49%	2.06
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Darmstadt)	77%	1.29
Handicap -1	Darmstadt win by 2+	29%	3.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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