SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between SV Elversberg and Mainz 05, the 1X2 probabilities show Mainz 05 at 47%, while SV Elversberg sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 84% chance of Over 2.5 goals and an 82% chance for both teams to score.
SV Elversberg's expected goals are 2.27, while Mainz 05 has a slightly higher figure at 2.62. Recent form indicates SV Elversberg has a mixed record with L-W-L-D-L-W, whereas Mainz 05 has won three of their last five matches, showing a stronger trend. These factors could influence the outcome differently than predicted.
Why this pick: SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SV Elversberg 7, Mainz 05 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05: model vs market
| Source | SV Elversberg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 20% | 50% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 46% |
| Published | 30% | 24% | 47% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 2.27.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg | 3.23 | 3.20 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.85 | +0.13 |
| Mainz 05 | 2.12 | 2.08 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.89
- Attack rating (SV Elversberg / Mainz 05)
- 1.14 / 1.48
- Defence rating (SV Elversberg / Mainz 05)
- 1.23 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SV Elversberg goals. Columns: Mainz 05 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 82%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SV Elversberg | 30% | 3.38 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Mainz 05 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82% | 1.22 |
| No | 18% | 5.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SV Elversberg or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Mainz 05) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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SV Elversberg and Mainz 05 recent form
SV Elversberg
2W 1D 3L
Mainz 05
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SV Elversberg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mainz 05 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SV Elversberg at home only, Mainz 05 away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- SV Elversberg, previous: SV Elversberg v Darmstadt analysis
- Mainz 05, previous: Bochum v Mainz 05 analysis