Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim, the 1X2 probabilities show Hoffenheim at 43% and Werder Bremen at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 68%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 65%.
Recent form indicates Werder Bremen has a record of W-D-D-W-D-W, while Hoffenheim has struggled with W-W-L-L-L-L. The expected goals are 1.70 for Werder Bremen and 1.83 for Hoffenheim. If Hoffenheim's recent poor form continues, it could impact their chances of winning.
Why this pick: Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Werder Bremen 10, Hoffenheim 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim: model vs market
| Source | Werder Bremen | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.60.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 3.03 | 2.90 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.90 | +0.02 |
| Hoffenheim | 2.16 | 2.20 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.52
- Attack rating (Werder Bremen / Hoffenheim)
- 1.01 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Werder Bremen / Hoffenheim)
- 1.07 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Werder Bremen goals. Columns: Hoffenheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Werder Bremen | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Hoffenheim | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Werder Bremen or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Hoffenheim) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim recent form
Werder Bremen
3W 3D 0L
Hoffenheim
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Werder Bremen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Hoffenheim away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Werder Bremen at home only, Hoffenheim away only.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Werder Bremen 1 · draws 0 · Hoffenheim 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Hoffenheim | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-27 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-16 | Werder Bremen | 1-3 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-29 | Hoffenheim | 3-4 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-03 | Hoffenheim | 2-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-07 | Werder Bremen | 2-3 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Werder Bremen, previous: Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen analysis
- Hoffenheim, previous: Holstein Kiel – Hoffenheim, 2026-10-28
- Hoffenheim, next: Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim, 2026-11-05