Union Berlin vs FC Cologne preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Union Berlin and FC Cologne, the 1X2 probabilities show Union Berlin at 36%, draw at 26%, and FC Cologne at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring 9% of the time. Both teams to score stands at 67%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 64%.
Union Berlin's expected goals are 1.64, compared to FC Cologne's 1.84. Recent form indicates Union Berlin has drawn twice and lost four times in their last six matches, while FC Cologne has drawn once, won once, and lost four times. These recent performances could impact the match outcome, making it essential to consider both teams' current form.
Why this pick: Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Union Berlin 10, FC Cologne 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne: model vs market
| Source | Union Berlin | Draw | FC Cologne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- The market prices FC Cologne below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.76, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| FC Cologne | 2.65 | 2.62 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union Berlin and FC Cologne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Union Berlin / FC Cologne)
- 0.91 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Union Berlin / FC Cologne)
- 1.17 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union Berlin goals. Columns: FC Cologne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union Berlin | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| FC Cologne | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union Berlin or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cologne) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union Berlin and FC Cologne recent form
Union Berlin
1W 2D 3L
FC Cologne
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union Berlin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
FC Cologne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Union Berlin at home only, FC Cologne away only.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Union Berlin 6 · draws 3 · FC Cologne 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Union Berlin | 2-2 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-20 | FC Cologne | 0-1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-11 | FC Cologne | 3-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-20 | Union Berlin | 2-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2023-03-04 | Union Berlin | 0-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2022-09-11 | FC Cologne | 0-1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2022-04-01 | Union Berlin | 1-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2021-11-07 | FC Cologne | 2-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2021-03-13 | Union Berlin | 2-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2020-11-22 | FC Cologne | 1-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Union Berlin, previous: FC Cologne v Union Berlin analysis
- FC Cologne, previous: FC Cologne v Union Berlin analysis