Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund preview
In the Bundesliga match between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich has a 65% chance to win, while Dortmund's chances sit at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Bayern's expected goals of 2.32 compared to Dortmund's 1.39.
Bayern's recent form shows 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, while Dortmund has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Both teams to score has a 68% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%. A potential factor that could challenge the expected outcome is Dortmund's ability to maintain their recent winning form against a strong Bayern side.
Why this pick: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayern Munich 10, Borussia Dortmund 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market
| Source | Bayern Munich | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Published | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.39.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 1.34 | 1.35 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 5.55 | 5.60 | +0.05 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 7.75 | 7.10 | -0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Bayern Munich / Borussia Dortmund)
- 1.79 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Bayern Munich / Borussia Dortmund)
- 0.81 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bayern Munich goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 16% | 6.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bayern Munich or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund) | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund recent form
Bayern Munich
3W 3D 0L
Borussia Dortmund
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bayern Munich at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 6.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.7 goals per match.
- They average 6.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Borussia Dortmund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bayern Munich at home only, Borussia Dortmund away only.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bayern Munich 3 · draws 2 · Borussia Dortmund 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-18 | Bayern Munich | 2-1 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-12 | Bayern Munich | 2-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-30 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-1 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-30 | Bayern Munich | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-04 | Borussia Dortmund | 0-4 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Bayern Munich, previous: Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg: odds and pick
- Bayern Munich, next: Atletico Madrid – Bayern Munich, 2026-11-03
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen analysis
- Borussia Dortmund, next: Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: odds and pick