Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07, the 1X2 probabilities show Borussia M.Gladbach at 49%, a draw at 24%, and SC Paderborn 07 at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance according to our model.
Borussia M.Gladbach has an expected goals figure of 2.20, while SC Paderborn 07 sits at 1.71. There is a 71% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance for both teams to score. However, Borussia M.Gladbach's recent form shows 5 losses in 6 matches, which could impact their performance.
Why this pick: Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia M.Gladbach 10, SC Paderborn 07 7). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07: model vs market
| Source | Borussia M.Gladbach | Draw | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.71.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia M.Gladbach, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 1.85 | 1.92 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.95 | -0.05 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 3.60 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / SC Paderborn 07)
- 1.06 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / SC Paderborn 07)
- 1.22 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Columns: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia M.Gladbach or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Paderborn 07) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia M.Gladbach win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 recent form
Borussia M.Gladbach
1W 0D 5L
SC Paderborn 07
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Borussia M.Gladbach at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SC Paderborn 07 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia M.Gladbach at home only, SC Paderborn 07 away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Borussia M.Gladbach, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach – Karlsruher SC, 2026-10-27
- SC Paderborn 07, previous: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction