Freiburg vs Wolfsburg preview
Freiburg faces Wolfsburg with a 14% chance of winning compared to Wolfsburg's 67%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.16 for Freiburg and 2.59 for Wolfsburg. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 64%.
Freiburg has shown strong recent form with 6 matches unbeaten, while Wolfsburg has drawn 3 of their last 6 games. However, Freiburg's historical advantage in head-to-head matches, with 4 wins in the last 6 encounters, could challenge Wolfsburg's expected dominance. This match could deviate from the model's predictions if Freiburg continues their winning streak or if Wolfsburg's recent draws affect their performance.
Why this pick: Freiburg vs Wolfsburg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, Wolfsburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 18% | 67% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 14% | 18% | 67% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.16.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Freiburg and Wolfsburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.75
- Attack rating (Freiburg / Wolfsburg)
- 1.16 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Freiburg / Wolfsburg)
- 0.75 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: Wolfsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs Wolfsburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 14% | 6.94 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Wolfsburg | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 33% | 3.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolfsburg) | 86% | 1.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolfsburg win by 2+ | 47% | 2.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Freiburg and Wolfsburg recent form
Freiburg
5W 1D 0L
Wolfsburg
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wolfsburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, Wolfsburg away only.
Freiburg vs Wolfsburg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Freiburg 4 · draws 1 · Wolfsburg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Freiburg | 1-1 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-20 | Wolfsburg | 3-4 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Wolfsburg | 0-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-13 | Freiburg | 3-2 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-27 | Freiburg | 1-2 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-09 | Wolfsburg | 0-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
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Before and after this match
- Freiburg, previous: Monaco vs Freiburg prediction
- Wolfsburg, previous: Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim analysis