Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig preview

In the DFB Pokal fixture between Rot-Weiß Essen and RasenBallsport Leipzig, the 1X2 probabilities show RasenBallsport Leipzig at 73%, while Rot-Weiß Essen sits at 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, which aligns with Leipzig's expected goals of 2.59 compared to Essen's 0.91.

The model indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and a 56% chance for both teams to score. However, if Rot-Weiß Essen can capitalize on their recent form, which includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, they could potentially challenge Leipzig's dominance.

Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Rot-Weiß Essen	Draw	RasenBallsport Leipzig
Model	10%	17%	73%
Market	—	—	—
Published	10%	17%	73%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.91.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Rot-Weiß Essen and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.91Rot-Weiß Essen

2.59RasenBallsport Leipzig

Total expected goals: 3.50
Attack rating (Rot-Weiß Essen / RasenBallsport Leipzig): 1.04 / 1.25
Defence rating (Rot-Weiß Essen / RasenBallsport Leipzig): 0.77 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 7.1% 10.2% 8.8% 10.5% 1 2.0% 7.8% 9.2% 8.0% 9.6% 2 1.3% 3.2% 4.2% 3.6% 4.3% 3 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

Rows: Rot-Weiß Essen goals. Columns: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Rot-Weiß Essen	10%	9.78
	Draw	17%	5.87
	RasenBallsport Leipzig	73%	1.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47
	Under 2.5	32%	3.11
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.27
Double chance	1X (Rot-Weiß Essen or draw)	27%	3.67
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or RasenBallsport Leipzig)	90%	1.11
Handicap -1	RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+	52%	1.92
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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