FC Cologne vs Union Berlin preview
In the DFB Pokal match between FC Cologne and Union Berlin, the 1X2 probabilities show Union Berlin at 61%, compared to FC Cologne's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Union Berlin has an expected goals figure of 2.32, while FC Cologne sits at 1.24.
Both teams to score stands at 65%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 69%. Recent form shows FC Cologne with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Union Berlin has only 2 wins in the same span. The head-to-head record favors Union Berlin slightly, with 2 wins in the last 4 meetings. This context could influence the outcome, but FC Cologne's home advantage might make things unpredictable.
Why this pick: FC Cologne vs Union Berlin
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, Union Berlin 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs Union Berlin: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.24.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Cologne and Union Berlin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / Union Berlin)
- 1.07 / 0.89
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / Union Berlin)
- 0.97 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs Union Berlin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: Union Berlin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs Union Berlin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs Union Berlin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 18% | 5.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Union Berlin | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 39% | 2.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Union Berlin) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union Berlin win by 2+ | 40% | 2.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cologne and Union Berlin recent form
FC Cologne
3W 1D 2L
Union Berlin
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union Berlin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, Union Berlin away only.
FC Cologne vs Union Berlin head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: FC Cologne 1 · draws 1 · Union Berlin 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Union Berlin | 2-2 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-20 | FC Cologne | 0-1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-11 | FC Cologne | 3-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-20 | Union Berlin | 2-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2026-10-27
- Freiburg v Wolfsburg — match page 2026-10-27
- Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen 2026-10-27
- Hannover 96 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern — match page 2026-10-27
- Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-10-27
- Bochum v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- FC Cologne, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne analysis
- Union Berlin, previous: Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-10-17