Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen preview
In the DFB Pokal match between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen, the 1X2 probabilities show Borussia Dortmund at 33%, a draw at 28%, and Werder Bremen at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score sits at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability.
Borussia Dortmund's expected goals are 1.29, while Werder Bremen has slightly higher expected goals at 1.40. Recent form indicates Borussia Dortmund has 6 wins and 1 draw in their last 7 matches, while Werder Bremen has 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the same period. These factors could influence the outcome, especially if Werder Bremen's recent form continues.
Why this pick: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia Dortmund 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: model vs market
| Source | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Borussia Dortmund / Werder Bremen)
- 1.31 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Borussia Dortmund / Werder Bremen)
- 0.68 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Werder Bremen | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia Dortmund or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Werder Bremen) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Werder Bremen win by 2+ | 18% | 5.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen recent form
Borussia Dortmund
5W 1D 0L
Werder Bremen
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Werder Bremen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund at home only, Werder Bremen away only.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 6 · draws 3 · Werder Bremen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2026-05-16 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-25 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-08-31 | Werder Bremen | 0-0 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-09 | Werder Bremen | 1-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-20 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-02-11 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2022-08-20 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-3 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2021-04-18 | Borussia Dortmund | 4-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
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- Freiburg v Wolfsburg — match page 2026-10-27
- Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Hannover 96 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern — match page 2026-10-27
- Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-10-27
- Bochum v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-27
- Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund analysis
- Werder Bremen, previous: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: odds and pick