SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg preview

In the DFB Pokal match on 2026-10-27, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach has a 5% chance to win, while Augsburg stands at 83%. The most likely scoreline is 0-3, which aligns with Augsburg's expected goals of 3.13 compared to Grossaspach's 0.77.

Augsburg's recent form shows they have won 4 out of their last 6 matches, while Grossaspach has only won 1 in the same period. The model predicts a high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 75%, but if Grossaspach can improve their scoring, they might challenge Augsburg's dominance. Both teams to score has a 52% chance, indicating some potential for Grossaspach to find the net.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	Draw	Augsburg
Model	5%	12%	83%
Market	—	—	—
Published	5%	12%	83%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 0.77.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Augsburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.77SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3.13Augsburg

Total expected goals: 3.90
Attack rating (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach / Augsburg): 0.69 / 1.05
Defence rating (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach / Augsburg): 1.11 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 5.8% 9.9% 10.3% 17.6% 1 1.1% 5.4% 7.6% 8.0% 13.6% 2 0.6% 1.9% 3.0% 3.1% 5.3% 3 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 4+ 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Rows: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach goals. Columns: Augsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 55%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	5%	18.23
	Draw	12%	8.50
	Augsburg	83%	1.21
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.34
	Under 2.5	25%	3.95
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.93
	No	48%	2.08
Double chance	1X (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw)	17%	5.80
	12 (either side)	88%	1.13
	X2 (draw or Augsburg)	95%	1.06
Handicap -1	Augsburg win by 2+	65%	1.53
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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