SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen preview
In the match between SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen, the 1X2 probabilities show Rot-Weiß Essen at 62%, compared to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. With expected goals of 1.10 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 2.25 for Rot-Weiß Essen, the data suggests a strong advantage for the visitors.
The model also indicates a 65% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability for both teams to score. However, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's recent form shows 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen: model vs market
| Source | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | Draw | Rot-Weiß Essen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 46% |
| Published | 26% | 23% | 50% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rot-Weiß Essen below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rot-Weiß Essen, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 3.12 | 3.12 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.79 | 3.79 | +0.00 |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 1.97 | 1.97 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach / Rot-Weiß Essen)
- 0.87 / 1.01
- Defence rating (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach / Rot-Weiß Essen)
- 1.50 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach goals. Columns: Rot-Weiß Essen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 26% | 3.82 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw) | 50% | 2.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Rot-Weiß Essen) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rot-Weiß Essen win by 2+ | 40% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen recent form
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1W 2D 3L
Rot-Weiß Essen
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rot-Weiß Essen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home only, Rot-Weiß Essen away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock 2026-10-31
- MSV Duisburg v Stuttgart II — match page 2026-10-31
- Verl vs SV Wehen 2026-10-31
- Havelse v FC Ingolstadt 04 — match page 2026-10-31
- Hoffenheim II vs FC Viktoria Köln — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers 2026-10-31
- FC Saarbrücken v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-11-01
- Alemannia Aachen vs Preußen Münster — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, previous: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg: odds and pick
- Rot-Weiß Essen, previous: Rot-Weiß Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig prediction