Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 preview
In the upcoming match between Havelse and FC Ingolstadt 04, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Ingolstadt 04 at 54%, compared to Havelse's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance, indicating that FC Ingolstadt 04 is favored to win.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Havelse recording D-D-L-L-L-D and FC Ingolstadt 04 at W-W-W-L-L-L. While our model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 67%, any unexpected defensive performance or a lack of finishing could alter these outcomes.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04: model vs market
| Source | Havelse | Draw | FC Ingolstadt 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 24% | 23% | 52% |
| Published | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Ingolstadt 04, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Havelse | 3.71 | 3.76 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.98 | -0.06 |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1.76 | 1.75 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Havelse and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Havelse / FC Ingolstadt 04)
- 0.96 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Havelse / FC Ingolstadt 04)
- 1.39 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Havelse goals. Columns: FC Ingolstadt 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Havelse | 25% | 3.97 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Havelse or draw) | 48% | 2.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Ingolstadt 04) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Ingolstadt 04 win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Havelse and FC Ingolstadt 04 recent form
Havelse
1W 2D 3L
FC Ingolstadt 04
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Havelse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Havelse at home only, FC Ingolstadt 04 away only.
Havelse vs FC Ingolstadt 04 head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Havelse 0 · draws 0 · FC Ingolstadt 04 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3-2 | Havelse | 3. Liga |
| 2025-09-17 | Havelse | 2-6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Hoffenheim II vs FC Viktoria Köln — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers 2026-10-31
- FC Saarbrücken v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-11-01
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Havelse, previous: Havelse – FC Saarbrücken, 2026-10-25
- FC Ingolstadt 04, previous: FC Ingolstadt 04 – MSV Duisburg, 2026-10-24