MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II preview
In the match between MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II, the 1X2 probabilities show MSV Duisburg at 59%, while Stuttgart II sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.57 for Duisburg and 1.57 for Stuttgart II.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Duisburg winning their last five matches, while Stuttgart II has two wins in their last six. The high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 74% suggest a potentially high-scoring encounter. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II: model vs market
| Source | MSV Duisburg | Draw | Stuttgart II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 19% | 20% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 17% |
| Published | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on MSV Duisburg, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 1.45 | 1.46 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.45 | +0.12 |
| Stuttgart II | 5.40 | 5.30 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (MSV Duisburg / Stuttgart II)
- 1.26 / 1.12
- Defence rating (MSV Duisburg / Stuttgart II)
- 0.90 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MSV Duisburg goals. Columns: Stuttgart II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MSV Duisburg | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Stuttgart II | 18% | 5.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MSV Duisburg or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Stuttgart II) | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win by 2+ | 41% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MSV Duisburg and Stuttgart II recent form
MSV Duisburg
4W 1D 1L
Stuttgart II
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MSV Duisburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.4 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Stuttgart II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: MSV Duisburg at home only, Stuttgart II away only.
MSV Duisburg vs Stuttgart II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: MSV Duisburg 2 · draws 0 · Stuttgart II 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Stuttgart II | 0-4 | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| 2025-08-02 | MSV Duisburg | 2-1 | Stuttgart II | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock 2026-10-31
- Verl vs SV Wehen 2026-10-31
- Havelse v FC Ingolstadt 04 — match page 2026-10-31
- Hoffenheim II vs FC Viktoria Köln — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers 2026-10-31
- FC Saarbrücken v Waldhof Mannheim — match page 2026-11-01
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- MSV Duisburg, previous: FC Ingolstadt 04 – MSV Duisburg, 2026-10-24
- Stuttgart II, previous: Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen analysis