Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg preview
In the match between Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg, the 1X2 probabilities show MSV Duisburg at 49% to win, while Preußen Münster is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.73 for Preußen Münster and 2.25 for MSV Duisburg.
Both teams to score is projected at 74%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 76%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the outcome. A draw at 22% could disrupt the expected scoring patterns, affecting predictions for goals and match results.
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg: model vs market
| Source | Preußen Münster | Draw | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 22% | 51% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 47% |
| Published | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on MSV Duisburg, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.62 | -0.02 |
| MSV Duisburg | 1.91 | 1.91 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (Preußen Münster / MSV Duisburg)
- 0.94 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Preußen Münster / MSV Duisburg)
- 1.15 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Preußen Münster goals. Columns: MSV Duisburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Preußen Münster | 28% | 3.64 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| MSV Duisburg | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Preußen Münster or draw) | 52% | 1.93 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or MSV Duisburg) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | MSV Duisburg win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg recent form
Preußen Münster
1W 1D 4L
MSV Duisburg
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Preußen Münster at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
MSV Duisburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Preußen Münster at home only, MSV Duisburg away only.
Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Preußen Münster 2 · draws 1 · MSV Duisburg 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-23 | Preußen Münster | 3-1 | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| 2023-09-30 | MSV Duisburg | 0-0 | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga |
| 2021-07-13 | MSV Duisburg | 2-3 | Preußen Münster | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-08-08 | MSV Duisburg | 1-0 | Preußen Münster | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-02-01 | Preußen Münster | 1-4 | MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| 2019-07-31 | MSV Duisburg | 2-0 | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga |
| 2017-02-12 | MSV Duisburg | 3-2 | Preußen Münster | 3. Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf 2026-11-07
- SV Wehen v Havelse — match page 2026-11-07
- Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rot-Weiß Essen v Alemannia Aachen — match page 2026-11-07
- Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- SV Meppen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 2026-11-08
- Stuttgart II vs Verl 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Preußen Münster, previous: Alemannia Aachen – Preußen Münster, 2026-11-01
- MSV Duisburg, previous: MSV Duisburg – Stuttgart II, 2026-10-31