Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 13

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

· Ostseestadion, Rostock· Referee Lennart Kernchen

Alin prediction Hansa Rostock to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hansa RostockDrawSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.38.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hansa Rostock is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Hansa Rostock1.65 Draw4.41 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach4.53

Price as of

Expected return at 1.65: -4.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach preview

In the match between Hansa Rostock and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, the 1X2 probabilities show Hansa Rostock at 59% to win, while SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with an 8% probability. The model suggests a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 73%.

Hansa Rostock's expected goals are 2.54, compared to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's 1.52. However, recent form may affect the outcome, as Hansa Rostock has recorded L-D-L-L-W-D, while SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach has L-L-W-D-L-L. With a confidence grade of C, the predictions could be impacted by either team's performance on the day.

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHansa RostockDrawSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Model59%21%21%
Market58%22%20%
Published58%21%20%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.38.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hansa Rostock, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 1.57Now 1.57 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hansa Rostock1.571.57+0.00
Draw4.204.18-0.02
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach4.404.44+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hansa Rostock and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38Hansa Rostock
1.38SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Total expected goals
3.77
Attack rating (Hansa Rostock / SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach)
0.91 / 0.83
Defence rating (Hansa Rostock / SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach)
1.13 / 1.49

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1 4.7% 8.4% 5.3% 2.4% 1.1% 2 6.6% 9.1% 6.3% 2.9% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.2% 5.0% 2.3% 1.1% 4+ 5.5% 7.5% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1%

Rows: Hansa Rostock goals. Columns: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hansa Rostock58%1.72
Draw21%4.66
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach20%4.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.38
Under 2.527%3.65
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.20
Double chance1X (Hansa Rostock or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach)42%2.39
Handicap -1Hansa Rostock win by 2+38%2.60
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Hansa Rostock and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach recent form

Hansa Rostock 1W 2D 3L
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hansa Rostock at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-1
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hansa Rostock at home only, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away only.

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hansa Rostock 2 · draws 6 · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2.

Hansa RostockDrawsSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-02-15SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0-1Hansa Rostock3. Liga
2019-08-17Hansa Rostock0-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
2019-03-09Hansa Rostock0-0SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
2018-09-22SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0-0Hansa Rostock3. Liga
2018-03-20SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0-0Hansa Rostock3. Liga
2017-07-29Hansa Rostock0-0SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
2017-02-11SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1-1Hansa Rostock3. Liga
2016-08-10Hansa Rostock0-0SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
2016-04-08SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0-1Hansa Rostock3. Liga
2015-10-24Hansa Rostock1-3SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Hansa Rostock to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Hansa Rostock
Our pick: Hansa Rostock to win 18+ Bet Now