Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 13

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken

· Sportpark Höhenberg, Cologne· Referee Ben Henry Uhrig

Alin prediction FC Viktoria Köln to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC Viktoria KölnDrawFC Saarbrücken
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.42.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
FC Viktoria Köln1.91 Draw4.15 FC Saarbrücken3.57

Price as of

Expected return at 1.91: -0.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken preview

In the match between FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Viktoria Köln at 54% and FC Saarbrücken at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. FC Viktoria Köln has a strong expected goals figure of 2.55, while FC Saarbrücken sits at 1.42.

Both teams to score has a 71% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 76%. However, the recent head-to-head record favors FC Saarbrücken, who have 6 wins in the last 10 encounters. This could impact the match outcome, making it important to consider both teams' recent form as well.

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC Viktoria KölnDrawFC Saarbrücken
Model61%19%19%
Market49%24%27%
Published52%23%25%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Viktoria Köln below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Viktoria Köln, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.73Now 1.85 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Viktoria Köln1.731.85+0.12
Draw3.953.80-0.15
FC Saarbrücken3.743.37-0.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.55FC Viktoria Köln
1.42FC Saarbrücken
Total expected goals
3.97
Attack rating (FC Viktoria Köln / FC Saarbrücken)
1.32 / 1.25
Defence rating (FC Viktoria Köln / FC Saarbrücken)
0.77 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1 4.1% 7.5% 4.8% 2.3% 1.1% 2 6.1% 8.7% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.4% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2% 4+ 6.1% 8.7% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4%

Rows: FC Viktoria Köln goals. Columns: FC Saarbrücken goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Viktoria Köln52%1.91
Draw23%4.39
FC Saarbrücken25%4.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.13
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.42
No29%3.40
Double chance1X (FC Viktoria Köln or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or FC Saarbrücken)48%2.09
Handicap -1FC Viktoria Köln win by 2+41%2.42
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken recent form

FC Viktoria Köln 4W 2D 0L
FC Saarbrücken 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Viktoria Köln at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Saarbrücken away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Viktoria Köln at home only, FC Saarbrücken away only.

FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Viktoria Köln 3 · draws 1 · FC Saarbrücken 6.

FC Viktoria KölnDrawsFC Saarbrücken
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-23FC Viktoria Köln2-0FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2025-08-09FC Saarbrücken2-1FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
2025-02-28FC Viktoria Köln1-2FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2024-09-25FC Saarbrücken1-0FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
2024-02-21FC Viktoria Köln2-5FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2023-08-19FC Saarbrücken1-2FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
2023-05-27FC Saarbrücken2-1FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
2023-01-20FC Viktoria Köln0-2FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
2022-02-19FC Saarbrücken0-1FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
2021-09-11FC Viktoria Köln0-0FC Saarbrücken3. Liga

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot FC Viktoria Köln to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on FC Viktoria Köln
Our pick: FC Viktoria Köln to win 18+ Bet Now