Updated

3. Liga · Matchday 13

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

· Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt· Referee Felix Grund

Alin prediction FC Ingolstadt 04 to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC Ingolstadt 04DrawFortuna Düsseldorf
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.98.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
FC Ingolstadt 042.70 Draw3.59 Fortuna Düsseldorf2.54

Price as of

Expected return at 2.70: +4.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf preview

In the match between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Ingolstadt 04 at 49%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 11%. The expected goals for Ingolstadt is 1.52, while Düsseldorf has a lower expected goals of 0.98.

However, the match could see different outcomes. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 46%, and both teams to score stands at 50%. This indicates that while Ingolstadt is favored, there is a reasonable chance for a different result, especially considering Fortuna's recent form, which includes multiple draws.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC Ingolstadt 04DrawFortuna Düsseldorf
Model49%28%23%
Market35%27%38%
Published39%27%34%
Edge+3%0%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Ingolstadt 04 below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Ingolstadt 04, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.63Now 2.55 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Ingolstadt 042.632.55-0.08
Draw3.423.36-0.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf2.302.39+0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52FC Ingolstadt 04
0.98Fortuna Düsseldorf
Total expected goals
2.51
Attack rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / Fortuna Düsseldorf)
0.98 / 0.73
Defence rating (FC Ingolstadt 04 / Fortuna Düsseldorf)
0.91 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.4% 6.8% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.2% 13.4% 6.0% 2.0% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.3% 4.6% 1.5% 0.5% 3 4.8% 4.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 2.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: FC Ingolstadt 04 goals. Columns: Fortuna Düsseldorf goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Ingolstadt 0439%2.59
Draw27%3.68
Fortuna Düsseldorf34%2.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.18
Under 2.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.99
No50%2.01
Double chance1X (FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf)61%1.63
Handicap -1FC Ingolstadt 04 win by 2+25%3.93
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf recent form

FC Ingolstadt 04 3W 1D 2L
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-3
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Fortuna Düsseldorf away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Ingolstadt 04 at home only, Fortuna Düsseldorf away only.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Ingolstadt 04 2 · draws 3 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 5.

FC Ingolstadt 04DrawsFortuna Düsseldorf
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-03-06Fortuna Düsseldorf3-0FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
2021-09-25FC Ingolstadt 041-2Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga
2020-09-12FC Ingolstadt 040-1Fortuna DüsseldorfDFB Pokal
2018-04-22Fortuna Düsseldorf3-0FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
2017-11-19FC Ingolstadt 041-0Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga
2015-04-17FC Ingolstadt 043-2Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga
2014-10-31Fortuna Düsseldorf0-0FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
2014-03-28Fortuna Düsseldorf0-0FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
2013-10-20FC Ingolstadt 041-2Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga
2012-02-04FC Ingolstadt 041-1Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot FC Ingolstadt 04 to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on FC Ingolstadt 04
Our pick: FC Ingolstadt 04 to win 18+ Bet Now