Bochum vs Mainz 05 preview
In the DFB Pokal fixture, Bochum faces Mainz 05 with a 5% chance for Bochum to win, 13% for a draw, and a strong 82% for Mainz 05 to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with expected goals of 0.65 for Bochum and 2.85 for Mainz 05.
While the model suggests a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 68%, both teams to score is lower at 45%. Bochum's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Mainz 05 has 4 wins in the same period. This discrepancy in form could affect the outcome, especially if Bochum can improve their scoring.
Why this pick: Bochum vs Mainz 05
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bochum 10, Mainz 05 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bochum vs Mainz 05: model vs market
| Source | Bochum | Draw | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bochum and Mainz 05 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Bochum / Mainz 05)
- 0.68 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Bochum / Mainz 05)
- 0.73 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bochum vs Mainz 05 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bochum goals. Columns: Mainz 05 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bochum vs Mainz 05 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bochum vs Mainz 05
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bochum | 5% | 19.02 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.73 | |
| Mainz 05 | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bochum or draw) | 18% | 5.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Mainz 05) | 95% | 1.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win by 2+ | 63% | 1.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Bochum and Mainz 05 recent form
Bochum
2W 1D 3L
Mainz 05
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mainz 05 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 9.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Bochum at home only, Mainz 05 away only.
Bochum vs Mainz 05 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Bochum 0 · draws 1 · Mainz 05 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Bochum | 1-4 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-11 | Mainz 05 | 2-0 | Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-16 | Mainz 05 | 2-0 | Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-27 | Bochum | 2-2 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
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- Hannover 96 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern — match page 2026-10-27
- Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats 2026-10-27
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Before and after this match
- Bochum, previous: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Bochum prediction
- Mainz 05, previous: FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05: odds and pick