Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC preview

In the DFB Pokal match between Borussia M.Gladbach and Karlsruher SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Borussia M.Gladbach at 17%, a draw at 23%, and Karlsruher SC at 59%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 10% chance. The expected goals suggest Borussia M.Gladbach will score 0.99 while Karlsruher SC is expected to net 1.98.

Both teams to score has a probability of 55%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%. Borussia M.Gladbach's recent form includes five losses followed by one win, while Karlsruher SC has three losses, one draw, and one win in their last five matches. These recent performances could impact the match outcome, making predictions less certain.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Borussia M.Gladbach	Draw	Karlsruher SC
Model	17%	23%	59%
Market	—	—	—
Published	17%	23%	59%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.99.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Borussia M.Gladbach and Karlsruher SC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.99Borussia M.Gladbach

1.98Karlsruher SC

Total expected goals: 2.97
Attack rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Karlsruher SC): 0.97 / 0.67
Defence rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Karlsruher SC): 1.10 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 9.1% 10.1% 6.7% 5.2% 1 4.1% 11.0% 10.0% 6.6% 5.2% 2 2.5% 5.0% 4.9% 3.3% 2.6% 3 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

Rows: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Columns: Karlsruher SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Borussia M.Gladbach vs Karlsruher SC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Borussia M.Gladbach	17%	5.81
	Draw	23%	4.29
	Karlsruher SC	59%	1.68
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.75
	Under 2.5	43%	2.33
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.81
	No	45%	2.23
Double chance	1X (Borussia M.Gladbach or draw)	41%	2.47
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Karlsruher SC)	83%	1.21
Handicap -1	Karlsruher SC win by 2+	37%	2.74
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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