Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt preview

In the DFB Pokal match between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt, the 1X2 probabilities show Hamburger SV at 5%, a draw at 9%, and Eintracht Frankfurt at 86%. The most likely scoreline is 0-3, with an 8% chance. Eintracht Frankfurt's expected goals stand at 3.68, while Hamburger SV's is only 0.91.

With an 84% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, there are factors that could change the outcome. If Hamburger SV improves their recent form, which includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, they might pose a greater challenge than expected. However, Eintracht Frankfurt's recent performance, with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, suggests they are in better shape.

Why this pick: Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hamburger SV 10, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurt

1.21 xG per 90 1.80

1.14 npxG per 90 1.65

17.9 PPDA 11.7

5.0 Deep completions per 90 8.5

1.03 xPTS per 90 1.14

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hamburger SV	Draw	Eintracht Frankfurt
Model	5%	9%	86%
Market	—	—	—
Published	5%	9%	86%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.68 vs 0.91.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Hamburger SV and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.91Hamburger SV

3.68Eintracht Frankfurt

Total expected goals: 4.58
Attack rating (Hamburger SV / Eintracht Frankfurt): 0.79 / 1.29
Defence rating (Hamburger SV / Eintracht Frankfurt): 1.06 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.4% 3.4% 6.9% 8.5% 20.2% 1 0.6% 3.8% 6.3% 7.7% 18.3% 2 0.4% 1.5% 2.8% 3.5% 8.3% 3 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 2.5% 4+ 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7%

Rows: Hamburger SV goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%

Over 1.5 95%

Over 2.5 84%

Over 3.5 67%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hamburger SV	5%	21.05
	Draw	9%	10.79
	Eintracht Frankfurt	86%	1.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	84%	1.20
	Under 2.5	16%	6.08
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.71
	No	42%	2.41
Double chance	1X (Hamburger SV or draw)	14%	7.13
	12 (either side)	91%	1.10
	X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt)	95%	1.05
Handicap -1	Eintracht Frankfurt win by 2+	72%	1.40
	Push (exactly one goal)	14%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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