St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg preview
In the 2. Bundesliga fixture between St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg, the 1X2 probabilities show St. Pauli at 41%, a draw at 26%, and 1. FC Nürnberg at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of St. Pauli, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score stands at 52%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 46%.
St. Pauli's expected goals are 1.17, while 1. FC Nürnberg has a slightly higher figure at 1.33. Recent form indicates St. Pauli has drawn three times in their last six matches, while 1. FC Nürnberg has one win in their last six. A draw or a high-scoring match could challenge the predictions based on recent performances.
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg: model vs market
| Source | St. Pauli | Draw | 1. FC Nürnberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 44% | 25% | 30% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Pauli, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli | 2.11 | 2.11 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.68 | +0.00 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (St. Pauli / 1. FC Nürnberg)
- 0.77 / 1.25
- Defence rating (St. Pauli / 1. FC Nürnberg)
- 0.83 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Pauli goals. Columns: 1. FC Nürnberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Pauli or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or 1. FC Nürnberg) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Pauli win by 2+ | 13% | 7.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg recent form
St. Pauli
2W 4D 0L
1. FC Nürnberg
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Pauli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
1. FC Nürnberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Pauli at home only, 1. FC Nürnberg away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2026-10-30
- Energie Cottbus vs Bochum 2026-10-30
- Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabrück — match page 2026-10-31
- Darmstadt v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page 2026-10-31
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC — match page 2026-10-31
- Karlsruher SC vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- St. Pauli, previous: Darmstadt vs St. Pauli prediction
- 1. FC Nürnberg, previous: Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction