SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel preview
In the match between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel, the 1X2 probabilities show SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 39% to win, while Holstein Kiel has a 35% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Both teams to score stands at 47%, indicating a moderate chance of goals from both sides.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent form includes 1 win and 4 draws, while Holstein Kiel has 1 win and 3 draws in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are close, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.09 and Holstein Kiel at 1.16. This tight matchup suggests that while a low-scoring game is likely, unexpected performances could change the outcome.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel: model vs market
| Source | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2.29 | 2.42 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.67 | -0.08 |
| Holstein Kiel | 2.71 | 2.52 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (SpVgg Greuther Fürth / Holstein Kiel)
- 0.88 / 0.87
- Defence rating (SpVgg Greuther Fürth / Holstein Kiel)
- 1.04 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals. Columns: Holstein Kiel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Holstein Kiel | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Holstein Kiel) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth win by 2+ | 13% | 7.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel recent form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1W 2D 3L
Holstein Kiel
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Holstein Kiel away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home only, Holstein Kiel away only.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 · draws 0 · Holstein Kiel 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Holstein Kiel | 1-2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-24 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 0-2 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig 2026-10-30
- Energie Cottbus vs Bochum 2026-10-30
- Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabrück — match page 2026-10-31
- Darmstadt v 1. FC Magdeburg — match page 2026-10-31
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC — match page 2026-10-31
- Karlsruher SC vs FC Heidenheim — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth, previous: VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: odds and pick
- Holstein Kiel, previous: Holstein Kiel – Hoffenheim, 2026-10-28