Updated

2. Bundesliga · Matchday 11

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

· Rudolf-Harbig Stadion, Dresden· Referee Michael Bacher

Alin prediction Dynamo Dresden to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dynamo DresdenDrawSpVgg Greuther Fürth
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.16.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dynamo Dresden is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Dynamo Dresden2.10 Draw3.82 SpVgg Greuther Fürth3.68

Price as of

Expected return at 2.10: -1.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth preview

Dynamo Dresden faces SpVgg Greuther Fürth with a 49% chance of winning compared to Fürth's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 9%. The expected goals show Dynamo Dresden at 1.61 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.16, indicating a potential for both teams to score, which our model suggests has a 56% likelihood.

Dynamo Dresden's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 losses, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, which reflects uncertainty. If either team improves their form or if the match ends in a draw, predictions could change significantly.

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDynamo DresdenDrawSpVgg Greuther Fürth
Model47%27%26%
Market47%26%27%
Published47%26%27%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.16.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Dynamo Dresden, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.91Now 1.99 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dynamo Dresden1.911.99+0.08
Draw3.803.62-0.18
SpVgg Greuther Fürth3.653.45-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Dynamo Dresden
1.16SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Total expected goals
2.77
Attack rating (Dynamo Dresden / SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
1.02 / 0.87
Defence rating (Dynamo Dresden / SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
1.03 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 6.1% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 1 9.0% 12.9% 6.8% 2.6% 1.0% 2 8.2% 9.4% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.4% 5.1% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Dynamo Dresden goals. Columns: SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dynamo Dresden47%2.13
Draw26%3.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth27%3.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (Dynamo Dresden or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth)53%1.89
Handicap -1Dynamo Dresden win by 2+25%4.01
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
 Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
 Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
 Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
 Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth recent form

Dynamo Dresden 2W 1D 3L
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dynamo Dresden at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Dynamo Dresden at home only, SpVgg Greuther Fürth away only.

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Dynamo Dresden 2 · draws 3 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.

Dynamo DresdenDrawsSpVgg Greuther Fürth
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-17Dynamo Dresden2-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
2025-08-03SpVgg Greuther Fürth3-2Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
2020-06-09Dynamo Dresden1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
2019-10-18SpVgg Greuther Fürth2-0Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
2019-04-04SpVgg Greuther Fürth0-0Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
2018-09-30Dynamo Dresden0-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
2018-02-11SpVgg Greuther Fürth1-0Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
2017-09-08Dynamo Dresden1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
2017-04-21SpVgg Greuther Fürth1-0Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
2016-11-20Dynamo Dresden2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Dynamo Dresden to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Dynamo Dresden
Our pick: Dynamo Dresden to win 18+ Bet Now