Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld preview
Holstein Kiel faces Arminia Bielefeld with 40% probability for a home win and 33% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Holstein Kiel's expected goals of 1.35 compared to Arminia Bielefeld's 1.12.
While both teams to score stands at 51%, the recent form shows Holstein Kiel with D-W-D-L-D-L and Arminia Bielefeld at W-L-W-W-D-L. This discrepancy in form could lead to a different outcome than predicted. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the final result.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld: model vs market
| Source | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Holstein Kiel, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 2.37 | 2.41 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.32 | -0.33 |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 2.80 | 2.75 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (Holstein Kiel / Arminia Bielefeld)
- 0.76 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Holstein Kiel / Arminia Bielefeld)
- 0.77 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Holstein Kiel goals. Columns: Arminia Bielefeld goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Holstein Kiel or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Arminia Bielefeld) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Holstein Kiel win by 2+ | 17% | 6.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld recent form
Holstein Kiel
1W 3D 2L
Arminia Bielefeld
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Holstein Kiel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-0
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Arminia Bielefeld away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Holstein Kiel at home only, Arminia Bielefeld away only.
Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Holstein Kiel 0 · draws 1 · Arminia Bielefeld 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2-2 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-10 | Holstein Kiel | 0-2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-02 | Holstein Kiel | 2-3 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-14 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2-1 | Holstein Kiel | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-09-17 | Arminia Bielefeld | 4-2 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2020-05-30 | Holstein Kiel | 1-2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2019-11-03 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2-1 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2019-05-19 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1-0 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2018-12-14 | Holstein Kiel | 1-2 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2026-11-07
- Hertha BSC v Wolfsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- Bochum vs Karlsruher SC 2026-11-08
- 1. FC Magdeburg v St. Pauli — match page 2026-11-08
- FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Holstein Kiel, previous: SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel analysis
- Arminia Bielefeld, previous: Arminia Bielefeld – Eintracht Braunschweig, 2026-10-30